Vessel Dayrate and Supply Forecast
The Challenge
As the offshore wind industry grows, securing the right vessels for turbine and foundation installation has become increasingly complex. A major offshore wind developer engaged Green Ducklings to help them understand and plan for the future vessel market, particularly in light of escalating prices and potential bottlenecks for heavy installation vessels (FIVs and WTIVs).
Our Approach
Green Ducklings adopted a structured approach to address the client’s challenges by combining market expertise, forward-looking analysis, and strategic recommendations. Our team focused on delivering actionable insights that would help the client navigate vessel shortages, rising costs, and evolving market dynamics.
Methodology
1. Vessel Supply and Demand Modeling
Through detailed market forecasting, Green Ducklings projected vessel availability and demand over the next decade, highlighting potential bottlenecks for FIVs (Foundation Installation Vessels) and WTIVs (Wind Turbine Installation Vessels). Using industry data and direct input from vessel owners, the team modeled several pricing scenarios to help the client understand how increasing demand for larger turbines and foundation components could impact day rates and supply availability.
2. Cost Modeling and Pricing Forecasts
Green Ducklings developed a forward-looking cost model to provide insights into vessel pricing trends. With newbuild vessel prices increasing by 40% in recent years, day rates were expected to follow a similar trajectory, potentially reaching up to $850,000 per day for the largest vessels by the end of the decade. By modeling these scenarios, the team enabled the client to make informed decisions about vessel contracting and timing.
3. Strategic Recommendations for Mitigating Risks
To hedge against price uncertainty and vessel shortages, Green Ducklings recommended securing long-term contracts with vessel owners. This approach would stabilize costs over time and guarantee vessel availability during peak project periods. Additionally, the team advised on framework agreements, providing the client with flexibility while locking in lower rates ahead of rising market prices.
4. Utilizing Industry Connections
Green Ducklings leveraged their extensive network within the maritime sector, engaging directly with vessel companies and market experts. This network-driven approach enabled the team to provide real-time insights into vessel availability and costs, while also exploring collaborative options for securing future vessel capacity through strategic partnerships.
By combining technical expertise, market insights, and strong industry relationships, Green Ducklings delivered a detailed cost model and supply analysis that would help the client mitigate risks and avoid delays over the coming years.
Outcome
Thanks to Green Ducklings’ strategic guidance, the client was better equipped to secure favorable contracts with vessel providers, locking in pricing and ensuring vessel availability for their future projects. By anticipating market trends and leveraging Green Ducklings’ deep industry connections, the client was well-positioned to avoid delays and mitigate cost increases as the offshore wind market continues to expand.
Green Ducklings stands out for its ability to handle both high-level strategic consulting and technical challenges. By combining a deep understanding of vessel markets with robust cost modeling and a strong maritime network, Green Ducklings ensures that offshore wind developers can secure critical resources, mitigate risks, and optimize project timelines in a rapidly evolving industry.
